China's Opportunity in Russia/Ukraine War
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On February 4th, 2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin flew to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics. After the United States and a handful of other Western countries implemented a political boycott, this put Putin on a grand stage as he was the highest profile political figure in attendance that evening in Beijing. Earlier that day, Xi and Putin had an official diplomatic meeting, which marked the 38th time these two leaders have officially met. In 2019 President Xi stated:
“Russia is the country that I have visited the most times, and President Putin is my best friend and colleague.”
There is no denying that Russia needs a strategic partnership with China to secure its position in the world. However, everything has shifted last week when Russian troops crossed into a sovereign state and launched a war against Ukraine. In today’s article I would like to share my thoughts on the Russia/Ukraine situation while also addressing China’s role in this ongoing development. This situation is extremely complicated, and war is complex. No one can predict the future, but I want to share my perspective on China’s role in this new international conflict.
Within minutes of Russia’s invasion, “Taiwan” began trending on Twitter as many speculated China would also start an invasion of Taiwan. I must be honest; China is in a very difficult situation as it trying to strike a difficult balance by seeking to pursue three goals simultaneously: a strategic partnership with Russia, commitment to long-standing foreign policy principles of “territorial integrity” and “non-interference,” and a desire to minimize collateral damage from EU and U.S. sanctions. However, this also presents a major opportunity for China to improve its international position if it can successfully mediate this war between Russia and Ukraine.
As I’ve stated earlier Xi and Putin have a very close relationship and together issued a joint statement after their most recent meeting in Beijing stating their friendship had “no limits”. Even China has sided with Russia on one of its critical security demands: an end to NATO expansion to the east and closer to Russia’s borders. I understand many people feel America and NATO are to blame for this war, believing that Putin was forced into a corner with little to no options left.
I 100% recognize America and NATO have played a major role in escalating this conflict between Russia and Ukraine. As an American citizen myself, I do not approve of the US government interfering into other sovereign countries affairs and also don’t feel there is any need for NATO to be in Ukraine….however
Even if Putin’s security concerns are valid, even if Putin doesn’t want to see NATO expand further east, nothing justifies these actions of war that he has taken against Ukraine. Putin’s war against Ukraine has been a disproportionate response and even caused China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to speak out against it:
“The security of a country can't be built on compromising the security of other countries, let alone harming sovereignty & security of other countries out of the pursuit of its own absolute military superiority & absolute security.”
Despite Xi’s close relationship with Putin, China must stand by and recognize the independence of Ukraine and stand against the war for one simple reason. This is the backbone of China’s own foreign policy and something it demands from every country in the world…respecting the territorial rights and sovereignty of China. While China has a close relationship with Russia, it also just celebrated its 30-year anniversary of diplomatic relations with Ukraine. Ukraine is a member of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and one of China’s economic partners, with more than fifteen billion dollars in bilateral trade flows.
At this point I want to address one of the more popular solutions that has been proposed to resolve this conflict and that is the idea of a “Neutral Ukraine” which could serve as a buffer between the NATO and the West and Russia and the East. One of the biggest promoters of this idea is University of Chicago Professor John Mearsheimer, who has given several popular lectures on the Ukraine/Russia situation. Of course, a neutral Ukraine could work in theory, but the reality is different. There is no guarantee Putin would be satisfied with a “Neutral Ukraine”. For a better insight, let’s look back to Putin’s 2005 State of the Union address:
“First and foremost, it is worth acknowledging that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century. As for Russian people it became a genuine tragedy. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.”
That’s a profound statement and one worth mentioning. Think of all the horrible things that happened during the 20th century…. multiple world wars, the holocaust, etc…and Putin believes that the Soviet Union collapsing takes precedence. There is no denying that Putin has a deep love and passion for Russia, however in many ways he is unable to accept the fact the Soviet Union collapsed some 30 years ago. In his mind, Ukraine is and will always be part of Russia and Ukrainians citizens are also part of the Russian motherland.
Evidence that a neutral Ukraine might not be enough for Putin can be seen in the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Even though 75% of Crimea residents wanted to return to Russia. Crimea was Ukrainian territory. This made Putin’s annexation completely illegal. By using force to annex the territory of a sovereign state, Putin effectively accelerated the Westernization of Ukraine, the exact thing he didn’t want to happen. Before the 2014 Crimea incident less than 25% of Ukrainian citizens wanted to join NATO, immediately after, that number rose to over 55%. In addition, by annexing Crimea, Putin changed the mathematics of Ukrainian politics. Crimea represented 5% of Ukraine’s population and consistently voted for Pro-Russian candidates, now that Crimea was annexed back to Russia, all those pro-Russian votes were gone and the chances of Ukraine electing a Pro-Russian candidate were even further reduced.
The big question that the entire world wants an answer to is….What is the purpose of this invasion? If the goal was to attract Ukraine away from the West, what thing could Putin have done better to unite Ukraine against Russia than starting this war. If the goal was to prevent NATO expansion does Putin honestly think that invading Ukraine would not further consolidate NATO? Some people have made the argument that Putin is afraid to see NATO expand directly against the Russian border, but this has already existed for 18 years. Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania all share a border with Russia and each country respectively joined NATO in 2004. To be honest I don’t see Putin’s end game here and I worry for the both the people of Ukraine and Russia.
When the Soviet Union came into the 1980’s it was poor and lagging the rest of the world, and many of its wounds were self-inflected. Mikhail Gorbachev was the Soviet Union leader at the time, and he realized that the Soviets could truly never rival the United States unless it started to open. At the time, the Soviet Union was wasting all its money on its military and not developing as a nation. The biggest hinderance to its development was its inability to open to the West, which interesting enough is exactly the opposite of what China did.
Going back to the 1940s with Chairman Mao, China’s leadership was adamant they needed the help of Western countries to develop their economy. This contrast in foreign policy is precisely why China and Russia economies are vastly different today. For the last 50 years China has built successful partnerships around the world and blossomed into the 2nd largest economy. Meanwhile Russia’s economy today, in 2022, is equivalent to the size of Texas. Putin has been in power for 22 years now, and Russia’s economic state is a fraction of what it could be under better leadership and organization.
As I conclude this video, I want to share some of the Russian voices who have spoken out against this war. The first is Russian national Dmitry Muratov, editor in chief of the Novaya Gazeta and 2021 Noble Peace Prize winner who stated:
I also want to share this message from Ashley Dudarenok who is a Russian national living full time in Hong Kong and one of China’s leading digital & marketing experts. She goes on to share:
“My heart is bleeding. I hold a Russian passport. But today I’m Ukrainian. As a Russian citizen, I demand to stop the war. I demand to stop the killing of Ukrainian civilians. I demand to stop destroying the Russian economy and the future of its people. No to war.”
Thank you all for reading today’s article. I know that some of you will not agree on the position that I have presented today but once again. I want to be clear. I understand the USA and NATO have escalated this conflict, however it does not justify this type of response from Putin.
I will always be anti-war, pro-dialogue and have a desire to build bridges with nations around the world. I admire China’s desire to have a positive relationship with both Russia and Ukraine. I can only imagine the immense pressure China is feeling as they manage the expectations of Russia, Ukraine, and the entire world during this difficult time. However, I also hope China realizes the tremendous opportunity it has. If President Xi truly believes there are “no limits” to his friendship with Putin, then persuading his friend to stop the war and find a peaceful solution would be an incredible outcome for all of humanity. It also could work out very favorably for China as they could maintain peaceful relations with both Russia and Ukraine and instantly improve its reputation on the global stage.